Washington badly wants to avoid the embarrassment of having Arafat run for election himself–which most observers think he would win handily. State Department officials hope to get the Europeans and Russians to back this approach, along with major Arab allies–Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan–and U.N. Secretary- General Kofi Annan. The aging Palestinian leader would then face a tough quid pro quo from the international community: step aside in return for gaining early statehood.
The real question is whether prominent Palestinians can be found to pink-slip Arafat, and whether Palestinian and Arab officials will demand that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon withdraw his troops from the Palestinian territories first. The Israelis have said they won’t pull out until elections are held; Palestinians say they cannot do so until Israel removes its troops. But U.S. officials say the Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians, worried by the out-of-control violence, are eager to move along negotiations for a provisional state.
Also expected this week is the inauguration by the “quartet”–the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations–of an international task force for reform in the Palestinian territories. The task force, which is expected to include the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, will oversee efforts to rout out corruption in the Palestinian Authority. (Among those working on the task force: Liz Cheney, the veep’s daughter, who is deputy assistant secretary of State for Near East.) CIA Director George Tenet will tackle security reform. The foreign ministers will also present a unified front in demanding that Israel ease its economic clampdown against the Palestinian economy in order to help foster meaningful reforms.
Powell aides have modest expectations for this round. After the battering they took abroad for going along with Sharon’s demand for new Palestinian leadership, U.S. officials are treading warily and not claiming the lead in drafting the new plan. Still, there is a chance for progress.
Says one U.S. official privy to Powell’s discussions, “There is hopefully going to be a faitaccompli delivered to Arafat.”
